4cast Prediction Market

Markets

Propose a market

Hot markets

These are normal markets picked automatically when they are created: about 5% of new markets get a promo pool (not something admins toggle per market). The pool is split across up to 10 early tradersβ€”each slot pays roughly one-tenth of the pool when you take your first qualifying trade on that market.

No open hot markets with an active promo right now.

Jump to all active markets

Active markets

Hot markets are rare (about 5% of new markets). See the Hot markets section above.

Resolved markets

Proposed markets

Will Claude be the best AI at the end of 2026?
Pending

If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard. If two models are tied unde…

Submitted by4castSubmitted3/3/2026, 4:44:07 AMCloses at12/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM